Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is a highly heterogeneous disease and successful treatment of EOC is highly dependent upon the tumour’s histology. For example, clear cell and serous ovarian cancers are associated with fundamentally different prognoses. A woman’s background (race and ethnicity) is also highly correlated with the histological subtype of EOC that she may develop. Nearly a third of the Australian population was born overseas, with the predominant country of origin changing over time. These demographic shifts which Australia has experienced over the last 50 years may affect the future incidence of EOC and corresponding treatment regime of EOC patients.
Using validated age-period-cohort models, cancer registry and demographic data, we use modelled estimates to project how the histologies contributing to the EOC burden are likely to change in the next 10 to 20 years.While ovarian cancer incidence rates in Australia are expected to decrease over the next 20 years (see Q. Luo et al 2022) the histologic subtype composition of these cases is likely to change. This has the potential to impact on both the available treatments and survival rates associated with an EOC diagnosis.
Australia has undergone large demographic shifts which affect the histological subtypes of EOC patients. Understanding how these demographic shifts could shape the future burden of ovarian cancer in Australia is necessary for proper healthcare utilisation and planning.